Pakistan

Ever since the government of Pervez Musharraf signed a peace treaty with local Taliban tribesman in Pakistan in September of 2006, we have been concerned about the stability of his government.  We believed the accord to effectively cede parts of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan to Islamic extremists was the beginning of the end.  The accord undermined the Musharraf government’s status as an ally of the United States in the war on terror and indicated to opponents that Musharraf’s position is fundamentally weak.

With the Taliban and Al Queda free to operate without interference from the Pakistani army, they were able to regroup, retrain and rearm for intensified battle against coalition forces in Afghanistan and carry out insurrectionist activities within Pakistan.  These activities have resulted in extremist gains in both countries with Pakistan now experiencing suicide bomb attacks and this past summer’s occupation and bloody recapture of the Red Mosque in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad.

Since that pivotal event, there has been a steady erosion of President Musharraf’s authority and popularity within Pakistan that has led to the current instability in that country, which we believe will lead to his eventual ouster by political opposition to his regime.  The fall of the Musharraf government will be a huge blow to this country’s war on terror in Afghanistan and potentially create a path for extremist gains in Pakistan.

At the moment, Musharraf’s principal opposition is political and appears to be democratic in philosophy.  But there are also militant forces in play in Pakistan and history has shown that dedicated extremist forces can take power when a sitting government loses popular support. Furthermore, we have seen how extremist elements have been effective in infiltrating government organs and the military establishment. While the officer corps of the Pakistani army is probably loyal to General Musharraf, there are more questions ... Log in to view full article.