Is Egypt slipping away?

Morris Segall      "Arab Spring", American antagonist, closer relations with Iran, Geopolitical threats, Islamic fundamentalism, loss of Egypt, Middle East unrest, new threat to Israel, power vacuum

In our October 19, video blog, we warned about the power vacuums being created in Middle East countries where existing governments have been overthrown by populist movements. Our concern has been particularly acute in regards to Egypt because of its large size, strategic location and its geopolitical importance to the U.S. and stability in the Middle East. In our October 19th blog, we enumerated a series of distinct actions on the part of the interim Egytian government and the Egyptian body politic that have resulted in adverse developments in Egypt’s various ethnic and religious communities and its previous coexistence policy with the State of Israel.
New sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians broke out last month breaking a long standing policy of tolerace within the country. This was followed by savage attacks on the Israeli Embassy by mobs in Cairo, which were allowed to get out of hand by passive police action. Also within the past 30 days, the Egyptian interim government and its population gave a warm welcome to the Prime Minister of Turkey who gave a series of inlfammatory anti-Israel diatribes. During this period, it became apparent the Egyptian authorities were “looking the other way” to increased arms shipments in Gaza from Egypt to aid anti-Israel military activities on the part of Hamas.
And now at the time of this writing, violent, popular demonstrations to remove the caretaker military government are underway and threaten to create a further vacuum in the governance of Egypt until new elections can be held. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held next week but presidential elections are not scheduled until next year. How can representative elections be held in the middle of mob violence that has unraveled civil order?
In the middle of this chaos and upheaval, the development we most feared is occurring. The highly organized, trained and well funded Islamic fundamentalist parties are assuming leadership of the popular demonstrations and increased support within the electorate itself. They are now favored to win a majority in the Parliamentary elections.
If this occurs, we can expect a radical shift in Egyptian domestic and foreign policy. The more extreme elements of the Islamic political movement wants an Islamic state governed by the Islamic law of Sharia. If this were to become law, Egypt would revert from a largely secular state to a theocracy along the lines of Iran. Indeed,
a more militant Muslim Egypt might be expected to forge closer diplomatic relations with Iran. Egypt would become an American antagonist in the region instead of a dependable ally.
Of more concern is the shift in Egyptian foreign policy towards Israel. There is a clear shift towards an anti-Israel attitude in the street and in leadership and political elements within Egypt and it portends ill for the maintenance of peaceful relations between the two countries and the region. If Islamic fundamentalists take control of the Parliament, we could expect the peace treaty with Israel to be “scrapped” and Egypt would take a more mililtant, pro-Palestinian stand on issues between Israelis and Palestinians. While Egypt might become an antagonist to America it would become an enemy to Israel. This would upset the balance of power in the Middle East, isolating Israel further in the region and presenting a new potential military threat to that country on its western flank. A more militant Egypt would embolden Hamas and Hezbollah to engage in more overt military actions. Israel may decide it needs to pre-emptively protect itself from increasing threats.
All of this bodes ill for U.S. foreign policy, economic and security interests. We will face new, uncomfortable challenges in dealing with this important region in the face of a new, unfriendly Egypt. Unfortunately, our ability to control events in Egypt are virtually nil and the rapidity of events in the Middle East have left us unprepared in dealing concretely with the aftermaths of this year’s Arab Spring. Our unpreparedness will cost us economically, militarily and politically as we find ourselves dealing with new leaders with whom we have cultivated little influence.

Morris R. Segall