August Employment: There is None

Morris Segall      Capital Markets, consumer sentiment, Economic stagnation, economy, employment, employment report, future trends, government, government stimulus, manufacturing, private sector investment, recession, slowdown, unemployment

Today’s employment report for August continued a worsening trend in the job market we have noted in our blog and website articles since June. Rather than another month of paltry job growth seen since May, job creation in August was zero. The last time the monthly employment report recorded an absence of job creation was last September. In addition, job creation for the months of June and July were revised downward a combined 58,000 jobs. Thus, over the last three months, job creation has averaged 35,000 jobs versus an average of 153,000 over the first five months of this year. Even the private sector, which has been creating a moderate level of jobs so far this year, dropped to nearly zero in job creation in August. More distressing is the event we have feared since the economy and employment faded through the second quarter. That is the shift by employers from reduced job hiring to job layoffs. In the August report, a number of industries recorded job losses including: manufacturing; construction; retail trade; transportation and information technology. The latter includes striking Verizon employees but that does not account for all of the job loss in this sector. The government sector also shed another 17,000 jobs in August. Year to date, the government sector has reduced employment by over 260,000 jobs.

As bad as these numbers are, other data in the employment report for August are even more negative. The already weak average workweek declined to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours in June and July and is at the low level of last August. Average hourly earnings declined from July levels and are less that 2% above year ago levels, well below nominal inflation. The number of involuntary part time workers increased by approximately 400,000 to over 8.8 million workers from July and is at the highest level since last August. As we reported in prior employment report articles, the number of unemployed 5-14 weeks had been expanding in recent months. Now those people are unemployed over 15 weeks and that category has expanded to almost 59% of the number of unemployed persons.

Combined with the very weak manufacturing data reported yesterday showing major declines in orders, shipments, backlogs and employment and the plummeting levels of consumer confidence in recent surveys, and we have an economy that is “stalled out” and on the verge of sliding back into recession. We have previously cautioned about such a prospect in previous blog articles if economic data over the summer did not improve materially and fast. It hasn’t.

The private sector is doing what we expected in a weakening economic environment-cutting back. The President is expected to announce new economic stimulus measures next week to help create jobs. They will not turn the economy around. The Fed will inaugurate a QE3 program to add more liquidity if recession is imminent. The impact will be similar to that of QE2- a temporary respite but damaging to the bond market and the value of the U.S. Dollar. Without the full participation of the private sector to invest heavily into the economy and hire workers, the current economic trends and pessimistic outlook will not change. This also does not augur well for U.S. and overseas capital markets.

Morris R. Segall

Wall Street Volatility Raises Concerns About Recession

Morris Segall      Dell, double-dip recession, economic volatility, European markets, HP, manufacturing, recession, technology, Wall Street

Volatility returned to Wall Street Thursday (8/18) on the heels of weakness in overseas markets and growing concern about slipping into recession. The reaction to a European slowdown in 2Q was exacerbated by the decidedly poor Mid-Atlantic manufacturing data and the diminishing near-term and intermediate outlook for technology companies like Dell and HP.

July Employment: Not Good Enough

Morris Segall      business retrenchment, Capital Markets, Economic Growth, economic recovery, employment report, GDP, job creation, recession, unemployment

July’s employment report was hailed with a sigh of relief. Total new job creation was over 100,000 with private sector job creation in excess of 150,000. This was the highest level of private sector job creation since 241,000 jobs were created in April. In addition, May and June employment was revised upward by a total of 56,000 jobs. Revised job creation for the two months amounted to 99,000 rather than the 43,000 previously reported. These numbers were interpreted to allay fears the economy was about to recede into recession.

While the July employment gain and previous months revisions were encouraging, in our opinion, the gains were not much more than statistical and change little in our view of the weak current employment environment.  In virtually all of the key measures of the job market, the July data continued the picture of a diminishing and discouraged work force, working stagnant hours and suffering from diminished employment.

According to the Household Survey, the civilian labor force contracted by almost 200,000 in the month of July and is 400,000 persons lower than year earlier levels. The employment/population ratio has fallen to 58.1% from 58.4% in July, 2010 and is at a 28 year low. The number of people not in the labor force has risen to 86.4 million, an increase of 374,000 from June and 2.1 million higher than year earlier levels. The unemployment rate for July was 9.1%, virtually unchanged from the May-June levels and only fractionally lower than the 9.5% of July, 2010. In addition, 2.5 million people could find only part time work in July, an increase of 116,000 from June and over 200,000 higher than year earlier levels. The average workweek continued to be an anemic 34.3 hours, virtually unchanged for a year.  The average duration of unemployment in July rose to 40.4 weeks, up from 33.0 weeks in July, 2010. The total number of unemployed plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time involuntarily, remained over 16%, virtually unchanged since April of this year and only fractionally lower than the 16.5% of July 2010.

On a more positive note, the important Professional and Business Services segment continued to show important progress with further gains in Computer systems design, Management and technical consulting services and Administrative jobs while temp jobs actually declined from May levels.

In summary, private sector job growth accelerated in July from weak levels of May and June. The job creation in the private sector continued to be offset by large job losses in the government sector, averaging 39,000 over the last three months. In fact, even with the increased job growth in July, net employment growth over the last three months averaged 111,000, down from an average of nearly 180,000 over the first four months of this year. This just isn’t good enough to foster increased economic growth or business expansion. While we do not believe we are currently in recession, an absence of improvement in recent economic data, including employment, will in our opinion, lead to further business retrenchment. This business retrenchment will be intensified by the recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating and the resulting deterioration in worldwide capital markets. This has raised the possibility of a recession later this year and next.

Morris R. Segall

In addition

The June Employment Report: Now we are getting pessimistic

Morris Segall      business spending, Capital Markets, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, debt default, deficit reduction, democrats, Economic Growth, economic recovery, future trends, inflation, job creation, June employment, obama, recession, Republican Party

Today’s employment report for the month of June is unequivocally a blow to expectations that May’s weak report was an aberration.  Instead of rebounding from May results, the June report deteriorated in virtually all key aspects  of employment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a neglible 18,000 jobs, the weakest level of job growth in nine months. To make matters worse, the Labor Department revised downward its previous readings on job creation in April and May by a combined 41,000 jobs, including a 29,000 job reduction in May to 25,000 from an already weak level of 54,000 jobs. The June report and the April-May revisions reveal a virtual absence of job creation since April. Of the 18,000 jobs created in June, 57,000 were created in the private sector, offset by a reduction of 39,000 jobs in federal, state and local governments. Of the 57,000 private sector jobs the vast bulk of these, (34,000),  were in the Leisure and Hospitality sector- low paying, seasonal and tenuous given its sensitivity to the economy. According to the Household survey, the unemployment rate reached a year to date high of 9.2% in June despite a contraction in the labor force of over 270,000 from May levels. In addition, the June Household survey showed an increase of 173,000 in the number of unemployed workers and an increase of nearly 450,000 persons not in the labor force. Other statistics from the June monthly report include: a recessionary employment/population ratio of 58.2%; a $.01 decrease in average hourly earnings resulting in no increase in average hourly earnings since April; a decrease in the average workweek and factory overtime; an increase of 100,000 in the number of discouraged workers from May to nearly 1 million persons; an overall increase of 474,000 in those categorized as marginally attached to the labor force from May to a level of 2.7 million people; and an increase of over 400,000 from May in the number of unemployed less than 5 weeks to over 3 million persons. In June, the percentage of workers unemployed, those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time because they can’t find full time work amounted to over 16%, the highest level this year. Two years after the recession ended, these numbers are unprecedented in post-war economic recoveries.

In our June 7th website article on May unemployment data, we concluded that the May data had been suppressed by the severe storms in the south and mid-west in April and May and the supply dislocations in Japan. We saw reassuring data in the May report that encouraged us to believe we were not on the verge of a double dip recession. Unfortunately, the June report contained none of those positives and should be relatively unimpeded by exogenous events. We believe  the June data confirms our fears that the business sector has retrenched in its spending since March, insecure in the outlook for consumer and customer end demand given the high levels of inflation and pressure on incomes and profit margins and deteriorating economic conditions in major markets overseas. This is confirmed in the underlying weakness in the June ISM manufacturing survey ( See our website article on the June Manufacturing Survey), and the weakness in the June ISM non-manufacturing survey, both released earlier this week. This retrenchment now appears to include a reduction in hiring.

This business spending retrenchment will have enormous implications for economic growth for the remainder of this year and into next if not reversed. An economy that does not provide job growth cannot grow. We have long focused on business and consumer spending as the drivers of economic recovery in the absence of contributions from housing and the government sector. Business retrenchment in spending and hiring will remove both of those drivers from the economy. The absence of private sector job creation will soon be reflected in reduced consumer sentiment and spending. Reduced consumer spending will slow business sales and pressure corporate profits causing businesses to retrench further. The net result is an economy that does not grow and one that could easily fall back into recession. We commented in our last website article how important the June employment report would be for the future direction of our economy. With the June numbers showing such employment weakness, we are now pessimistic the second half of this year will show renewed economic growth and the outlook for 2012 has become decidedly less sanguine. We expect to revise downward our expectations for GDP growth for this year to the bottom of our 2%-3% range and we may have to reduce our projections further if current economic trends persist.

We expect the weak June employment data to complicate if not preclude an agreement on raising the nation’s debt ceiling. The weakness of the June report will, in our opinion, harden the resolve of Republicans to reject revenue raising measures advocated by the President. The same employment weakness will, in our opinion, also strengthen the resolve of Democrats to avoid stringent federal spending cuts, particularly in entitlement programs. The current weakness in the economy will widen the ideological chasm between the political parties. Thus, we are not optimistic a far reaching deficit reduction program will be reached in the next two weeks. Rather we now believe a stopgap measure to avoid government default, possibly through the end of the current fiscal year, will be the only agreement that can be fashioned.

Clearly these events and the current economic environment are not conducive to stock market appreciation. In view of the recent rally in stock prices at the end of June and the first week in July, we believe the equity markets have increased downside risk and less upside potential. We would advise a more defensive and risk averse capital market strategy in light of present circumstances.

Morris R. Segall

Is There a Silver Lining in May’s Unemployment Numbers?

Morris Segall      distribution, employment, production, recession, unemployment

The May unemployment numbers were nothing short of disappointing. But do they mark the beginning of a double-dip recession, as many economists have predicted? Morris Segall, President of SPG Trend Advisors, suggests things might not be quite as bad as they seem, with weather the primary culprit for the sharp drop in production and distribution. Segall also cites an uptick in professional and business services employment and a shift from temporary to permanent hiring as encouraging. See Segall’s oped in the Baltimore Business Journal at http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/print-edition/2011/06/17/bleak-economic-numbers-dont-disclose.html

S & P Joins the U.S. Budget Debate

Morris Segall      austerity programs, bailout, business confidence, business landscape, Capital Markets, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, Economic Growth, economic recovery, federal deficits, future trends, GDP, national debt, politics, recession, tight credit

This morning, Standard and Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating outlook from stable to negative. The rating agency cited the high level of public debt as a percentage of GDP and the uncertainty that adequate actions to significantly reduce the U.S. debt level and maintain it at manageable levels would be undertaken in the forseeable future. The negative outlook and the reasoning behind it portend a “one in three likelihood of a lower long-term credit rating on the U.S. within two years” according to the text of the S & P release. Standard and Poor’s states the leverage on the U.S. balance sheet and accumulating annual deficits are higher than other countries with sovereign debt ratings of AAA.

We are not surprised by the S & P action. Indeed, in our website article of September 8, 2008, “Stocks, Recession and the Bail Out” we cautioned that the massive federal bailout of the housing and banking industries would add billions to annual deficits and the national debt. We further stated “The cumulative effect of ballooning annual federal deficits, the secular pressure on the federal budget from increasing entitlement spending and the continuing balance of trade deficit may lead to a downgrade in the U.S. government credit rating and a further aversion to U.S. dollar denominated assets longer term”. The extended decline in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies has reached historical proportions in the first four months of this year, even against the financially questionable euro. 

While we are not surprised by the S & P action, we are surprised at the timing of the ratings outlook. Why now in the heat of the budget debate between Congress and the President? Why didn’t Standard and Poor’s wait until mid May after some decision on the federal budget and increase in the debt limit would have been forthcoming? It is our opinion that by releasing this downgraded credit outlook now, it would have a significant impact on the budget deliberations and possibly tilt the argument in favor of more draconian spending cuts as advocated by the Republicans in Congress. It is not unreasonable to believe that outside credit analysts, rating agencies and economists have come to the conclusion that the U.S. must adopt an austerity spending program similar to those adopted by the European Union as a solution to its excessive debt burden. By using a time frame of three years (similar to that employed in the European austerity programs) to measure progress, S & P makes the same mistake such a short time period has created on the countries in Europe. It is simply too short a period of time to deleverage sovereign balance sheets without stifling critically needed economic growth to provide the means to paydown debt (See out website articles of December 17, 2010 and March 15, 2011).

Today’s ratings outlook release by Standard & Poor’s misses important differences between the U.S. economic situation and those of Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. The U.S. economy is in recovery led by manufacturing, exports and more recently consumer spending. Employment gains have accelerated since last November. While the recent surge in inflation has slowed U.S. economic growth coming out of the first quarter of this year, the recovery trend is not aborted. It will be if the Federal government is forced to make drastic spending cuts which will reverse its role as an economic stimulant to an economic depressant at this sensitive point in the U.S. economic recovery. We argued in our economic articles on Europe and once again, that longer periods of time are required to deleverage these balance sheets. A longer period of time will allow the national economy to grow at a rate to raise tax receipts and pay down debt. We have long been advocates for greater fiscal discipline by the U.S. government that includes large spending cuts and higher taxes. However, a nation in recession cannot reduce its debt to GDP ratio.

By releasing its downgraded U.S. ratings outlook today, Standard and Poor’s has entered the political debate and abandoned its role as a neutral and impartial arbiter of credit conditions. Furthermore, the surprising timing of this release has caused capital markets here and around the world to decline significantly, further eroding asset values and wealth and business and consumer confidence already battered by overseas events in Japan, the Middle East and Europe. Declining capital markets and consumer and business confidence will lead to tighter credit conditions at a time when credit was just beginning to “loosen up”. This in turn will lead to investment and spending retrenchment, threatening the nascent economic recovery here in the U.S. The worries of a deteriorating U.S. financial condition in 2012 and beyond could be self fulfilling as a result of what we believe is an ill timed alarm. We will have to see in the coming days if the S & P action is transitory or longer lasting in its impact. 

Morris R. Segall

Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

Morris Segall      2009 economy, Add new tag, business landscape, Capital Markets, consumers, crisis, debt, economic, economics, employment report, future trends, GDP, government, recession, unemployment

We recently updated our presentation on today’s economic landscape and what’s on the other side with some fresh data.  We hope you continue to find value in our slides:

November Unemployment: Is this the Peak?

Morris Segall      consumers, debt, economic, economics, economy, employment report, GDP, government, recession, trends, unemployment

Today’s unemployment data for November was a surprising loss of only 11,000 jobs, well below economists’ expectations of 100,000-150,000 jobs lost in the month. In addition, the unemployment rate for November declined unexpectedly to 10% from October’s 10.2%. Consensus expectations were for the unemployment rate in November to be flat at best with October’s cycle high. The Labor Dept. also revised downward previously reported job losses in September and October. Monthly job losses have been revised downward for each month since August by a total of over 200,000 jobs. Since August, monthly job losses have averaged below 200,000 versus over 300,000 average monthly losses in the May-July period. The decline in monthly job losses parallels the strong improvement in first time unemployment claims reported weekly. Since mid September, first time unemployment claims have fallen approximately 100,000 and are now running at approximately 450,000 for the last two weeks in November.

In isolating the areas of reduced job losses we note that healthcare continues to be the area of the economy that has consistently added workers during the recession. Since September, healthcare has added an additional 100,000 workers and nearly 900,000 workers since the recession began in December of 2007. Other areas of job improvement since September are: the federal government and state government education accounting for an increase in approximately 50,000 jobs; and professional and business services adding over 100,000 jobs largely in temporary help services.  Importantly, for the first time this year, the average workweek increased to 33.2 hours from a cycle low of 33.0 hours in October.  The average workweek improved more in the manufacturing sector expanding to 40.4 hours from 40.0 hours in September. This reflects the recurring order and shipment strength in the manufacturing sector since last summer.

Conversely, most other areas of the economy continued to record job losses including manufacturing, finance, construction, retail and wholesale trade and information services. While the Labor Dept. reports almost 41% of reporting industries are now hiring, a cycle high, that leaves nearly 60% that are not. The surge in temporary help jobs indicates businesses are wary of the economic recovery and are reticent to add to payrolls. Furthermore, the labor force has declined by over 100,000 workers since September indicating an increase in discouraged workers despite the improvement in the economy. The decline in the civilian labor force would also partly explain the decline in the unemployment rate in November. Another benchmark of employment in the weekly and monthly reports indicate no improvement in the numbers of long term unemployed and under-employed workers. In fact, the numbers of long term unemployed increased to over 9 million or 38% of total unemployed at the end of November, a record level.  In addition, while first time unemployment claims have declined sharply, they are still recording well above 400,000 claims per week. Finally, the response from consumers in recent surveys indicate jobs are hard to get by an overwhelming margin despite the economic improvement in the third and fourth quarters. These measures do not support the monthly improvement in employment reported by the Labor Dept. since August and we have repeatedly said so in our blog articles on the monthly employment reports going back to last July.

Nonetheless, if the monthly employment report from the Labor Dept. is indeed true and not distorted by seasonal adjustments and faulty assumptions that are part of this survey’s results, then  it would appear that unemployment in this cycle is peaking and job creation is virtually around the corner early next year. This would be well ahead of consensus expectations, including our own, in projecting a peak in unemployment and the transition to job creation in the middle and latter part of 2010, respectively. It is important to note that the Labor Dept. will be making final revisions to its 2009 monthly employment data in March of 2010. In its initial revision to 2009 monthly employment data in August, the Labor Dept. revealed that unemployment this year was actually almost 900,000 workers higher than originally reported. Similar revisions were made to monthly data in 2007 and 2008. With that as a background and the contradictory results of other unemployment data and surveys, we are skeptical the employment cycle is turning this strongly and this fast.

Morris R. Segall, CFA, CIC

Third Quarter GDP Revised Down

Morris Segall      2009 economy, consumers, economics, future trends, GDP, global, government, recession, stimulas, unemployment

Yesterday’s second reading on the third quarter GDP showed a downward revision from the robust 3.5% preliminarily reported at the end of October. As November wore on expectations of the second and more definitive read on the third quarter was for a downward revision to the 3% level but no one was alarmed. It was considered more or less statistical.

After taking a look at the revisions from the preliminary report we are concerned for the following reasons:

1. Personal consumption was revised down from 3.4% growth to 2.9% with spending on goods dropping from 8.1% growth to 7.2%.
2. Business capital spending dropped from 11.5% growth  in  the preliminary report to 8.4% in the revision with large downward revisions in the growth of inventories and business structures.
3. Federal government spending growth was revised upward from  2.3%  to  3.1%.
4. Growth in final sales of domestic product was revised downward from 2.5% to 1.9%.

This revised mix of weakness in business and consumer spending with all of the federal government stimulus in the quarter is alarming and casts further doubt on the underlying strength in the economy as federal stimululs abates going into next year. Our assumption of 1%-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter will need strong contributions in both consumer and business fixed investment from the revised third quarter levels. We detect an improved level of retail sales in the quarter but  will need to see sales results of “Black Friday” to see if that is true. A disappointment in this weekend’s sales will cause a shift in outlook for both the economy and particularly the capital markets which have been seeing the glass “half full” in November despite the warning signs in consumer sentiment, new home sales and continued high levels of unemployment. It is noteworthy that the market gains in November have been accompanied by low levels of trading volume, an ominous sign for sustained capital market gains.

In our previous website and blog articles on the preliminary third quarter GDP, we remained skeptical of the durability of the third quarter gains and said we would be watching fourth quarter economic data closely for future direction. With the downward revision in third quarter numbers, we will be even more vigilant to see if this economic recovery has “legs”.
Best wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving holiday and stay tuned.

Morris R. Segall, CFA, CIC

Economic and Capital Market Update

Morris Segall      2009 economy, business landscape, Cash for Clunkers, consumers, economics, recession, trends

It looks like it is all falling into place. Improved housing sales, increased factory orders and shipments, the “Cash for Clunkers” program moving autos off of dealer lots and stimulating increased automobile factory production and the best news of all, stock markets around the world are hitting 12 month highs. World central bankers, including our own Ben Bernanke, pronounce the recession over as GDP for the June quarters show positive growth in France, Germany, Japan and most of Asia. The capital markets buying the rumor are soaring fed by huge amounts of liquidity added to monetary systems by the world central banks as they embarked on economic bailout and stimulus programs. This past Friday’s U.S. stock market action has typified the recent ebullience among bankers and investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 9500 level for the first time since last October buoyed by further good news in existing home sales and Ben Bernanke’s positive comments.

Continue reading this premium article at spgtrend.com

Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

Morris Segall      2009 economy, business, business landscape, climate, crisis, debt, economic, future trends, globalization, recession, slowdown, strategy, trends, unemployment

We recently updated our presentation on today’s economic landscape and what’s on the other side with some fresh data.  We hope you continue to find value in our slides:

Current Economic News Needs A Dose Of Reality

Morris Segall      economy, news, recession

Pardon us for interrupting the party but we felt the economy was going to hit a DEMAND bottom at the end of the first quarter as inventories, employment, factory orders and consumer spending plummeted to depths at which they were unlikely to contract further. But a demand bottom did not mean we were at a recession bottom. The current economic condition is comparable to falling to the bottom of a swimming pool. You reach a point where you hit bottom. That doesn’t mean you rise back to the surface. One can lay on the bottom for a while longer. That is where we believe we are in the current cycle. Here’s why:

1. The April unemployment report which showed a reduction in job losses to under 500,000
masked a large component of temporary federal government hires for next year’s census.
Job losses in the private sector were over 600,000 and continued to afflict every industry
sector except government and healthcare, the only sectors that have added jobs in the
last seven months. In addition, prior months job losses have been revised downward. The
average monthly loss in jobs in the first quarter of 2009 is now approximately 700,000
versus a little over 500,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008. More importantly, continuing job
losses have risen to over 6.25 million from approximately 4.5 million at year end 2008. To
come are large job losses from the downsizing and restructuring of GM and Chrysler over
the summer.

2. Reflecting the increased level of job losses and constricted credit availability, consumers
continue to reduce their outstanding debt. In March consumer debt outstanding declined by
a record $11 billion. Since the third quarter of last year consumer credit outstanding has
declined by nearly $32 billion and consumers savings rate has climbed to over 4%. Further,
consumers are using debit cards instead of credit cards paying cash instead of increasing
the use of credit.

3. After holding below 3% since the fourth quarter of 2008 the yield on 10 year U.S.
Treasury Notes rose above 3%, escalating to over 3.25% last week. We have been warning of the upward pressure on interest rates lurking in the skirts of a recession bottom. As optimism of such a bottom increases and stocks continue to rise, money shifts from bonds to stocks. More importantly, the supply of new Treasury financing for the burgeoning federal budget deficits are forcing interest rates up. Speaking of federal deficits, we have projected the current fiscal year deficit of $2 trillion
(See our latest Economic Update, May 1, 2009). Today, the White House increased its
projection of the current fiscal year deficit to $1.8 trillion. We don’t think they are done.

4. Not so quietly, oil prices have escalated 20% to over $55 per barrel since mid April. Likewise, gasoline prices have escalated and are now well over $2.00 per gallon at the pump.

We believe these factors are going to slow down the consumer recovery and prolong the demand bottom we believe we are now experiencing. Yesterday’s April retail sales report was surprisingly weak, further evidence of the consumer’s unwillingness and inability to increase his spending currently. Given the continued high levels of unemployment and consumer spending retrenchment plus the new increases in interest rates and gasoline prices, we do not think the nascent improvement in economic activity is sustainable through the summer when auto job losses hit. We may be seeing a “sawtooth” pattern of episodic improvement followed by retrenchment. We are hopeful the fourth quarter may be the first concrete period of economic recovery but the auto industry job cuts make that forecast less predictable than we believed earlier. This may push recovery into the first half of next year.

So yes it looks like we are reaching a deceleration in the rate of economic contraction but it is too soon to break out the champagne and the stock market needs a correction to stay healthy. We have been bullish on the 1-3 year outlook on U.S. stocks for some time believing the stock market would “smell” out a recession bottom well before the economy recovered as it always has. The rally in stocks since early March is consistent with that trend but it is now vulnerable to disappointing economic data. However, we believe the early March market lows are this cycle’s lows and we expect a correction near term to hold above the early March levels. We would use such a correction to increase investment allocations in equities with a 1-3 time horizon.

Morris R. Segall, CFA, CIC

Title: I’m Mad As Hell: Conclusion

Morris Segall      economic, economy, government, investment, NASDQ, recession, recovery, stocks

In a recent article published March 23 for SPGTrend.com subscribers, we examined the social and political toll of the current recession and their longer term impacts on the U.S and overseas economies.  Over the course of several blog posts, we will take you through the content of this piece and put what we’re going through into context.

In part one, we outlined an introduction for this series.  Part two discussed the first four trends and developments.  Part three discussed public anger.  Part four discussed the declining economy causes spiraling stress.  Part five discussed the long-term implications for the recession.  And now we will wrap up this series with some concluding thoughts:

We expect the U.S. recession to end later this year and gradually begin recovery next year and accelerate through 2011, 2012 and 2013. The U.S. recovery will stimulate the export dependent economies overseas and they will recover accordingly.

After a strong cyclical recovery, the U.S. will settle into a stagflationary economic cycle characterized by a secular high level of unemployment, lower worker productivity, a resumption of higher energy, food and commodity inflation and slower consumer income growth and spending.

High deficits, increased entitlement spending, increased interest rates and a depreciated currency will deteriorate U.S. government finances.

Emerging markets overseas in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America will again pace future long-term economic growth.

Americans will shift politically to the left as they become more dependent on government spending for basic needs and income.

Populations in mature industrialized economies will shift politically to the right as they become more nationalistic to protect jobs, companies and existing social welfare programs. They will also be less inclined to pursue free trade in the future.

Free trade will still be important to emerging industrialized economies as they continue to pursue export oriented economic growth and employment. This will increase tensions between the mature economies such as Western Europe, Japan and the U.S. and the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

From a capital markets standpoint, we remain defensive in the short term as we look for evidence of an economic bottoming. However, we would prepare to emphasize common stocks, particularly large cap and NASDAQ U.S. stocks to participate in a bottoming in the recession and subsequent economic recoveries here and abroad. We would also increase our positions in gold and other commodities as the world economies reflate and commodity prices increase. Concomitantly, we would avoid bonds as they will see a shift in cash to stocks and an increase in interest rates in an economic recovery.  Please contact us with any questions regarding this article and for specific recommendations on your investment program.

I’m Mad As Hell (Part 5): Long Term Implications Of The Recession

Morris Segall      economics, economy, fears, politics, recession, social implications

In a recent article published March 23 for SPGTrend.com subscribers, we examined the social and political toll of the current recession and their longer term impacts on the U.S and overseas economies.  Over the course of several blog posts, we will take you through the content of this piece and put what we’re going through into context.

In part one, we outlined an introduction for this series.  Part two discussed the first four trends and developments.  Part three discussed public anger.  Part four discussed the declining economy causes spiraling stress.  Today’s entry discusses the long-term implications for the recession:

We believe the current trends and developments have longer-term significance and implications for the U.S. and overseas countries, politically, socially and economically.  From an intermediate term economic outlook perspective, we believe the current recession will “bottom out” in the second or third quarters of this year. We believe the worst of the recession is now being experienced in the first quarter. We do not expect an economic recovery to be measurable until the fourth quarter of this year, at the earliest, and possibly the first half of next year.

Assuming a recovery from the current recession gets underway next year and builds through 2011, 2012 and 2013, we expect such a recovery to be cyclical and quite robust given the pent-up demand that is accruing from consumers and businesses over the past 5 quarters. The economic recovery will be led by the U.S and extend overseas late in 2010 and more pronounced in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

However, longer term, we see the following resulting implications from this recession:

1.       Americans will be more circumspect in assuming risk going forward. They will not embrace the unbridled use of credit as they have in the past. First, the availability and cost of credit in the future will restrict credit to consumers. Second, many consumers will eschew the use of credit to maintain lifestyle given the difficulty they have faced in meeting debt obligations.

2.       Americans will be more conservative in their investment programs after the cyclical rebound expected over the next 2-3 years in worldwide equity markets. For one thing, Americans will be older and less inclined to take risk with their remaining and/or rebuilt capital, particularly in retirement plans. Second, Americans’ faith in the equity markets has been shaken by two market declines of 50% in the past 9 years plus the scandals also attendant with these declines. We believe Americans will retreat to a more basic and conservative investment profile that emphasizes intrinsic and transparent value and predictable future prospects. In addition, we expect a more highly regulated environment for financial firms and capital markets which should result in less leveraged and speculative investment products and strategies.

3.       Americans will have to work longer before retiring as a result of the huge losses in savings, net worth and retirement accounts. However, many of the current generation of middle aged and senior workers will be suffering deteriorated health as a result of the current emotional and physical stress they are currently experiencing. These workers will have aged faster than otherwise due to the emotional and physical stresses of this recession. This will result in many workers having to retire earlier than planned which will add to the cost of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and private pension costs. These increased costs will be in addition to the enormous increase in Federal entitlement program costs from the retirement of the “Baby Boomer” generation of workers who begin to turn 65 in 2011 and will reach age 70 in 2016.

4.       As a result of the wealth and job destruction in this recession and the impending retirement of so many workers, the demand for increased government services to handle a burgeoning aging and retirement population will put enormous strain on the U.S. Federal budget. This will be in addition to the huge strain on Federal finances that is now being incurred from the massive “bailout” programs that are being initiated to stabilize the banking system and end the current recession. It is likely the annual Federal budget deficits will range from $500 billion to $1 trillion or more over the next 5 years.  Clearly this will put upward pressure on interest rates and price inflation in the U.S. and downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency markets. Indeed, we and other economists have raised the threats of these developments presently and they are already of concern to foreign governments and investors that own U.S. Treasury bonds.

5.       Unemployment in the U.S. will be historically high even with a cyclical economic recovery projected over the 2010-2013 period. There simply will be no job opportunities for many of the former Wall St. and banking managers, executives and traders and automobile and related managers and executives, particularly over the age of 50.

6.       The increasing population of aging and retired workers will not have the financial resources anticipated for this population segment at the beginning of this decade when the stock market bubble at that time had created so many retirement plan millionaires. As a result, the projected retirement population will live more frugally than earlier projected and will not be the economic stimulus many had planned on. Indeed, for the reasons stated previously, they will be more of a drain on the U.S. economy than help. In addition, they will not provide the spending for increased foreign imports or overseas travel as previously predicted.

7.       We expect international trade agreements to be less liberal here and abroad, as the infatuation with globalization becomes a casualty of the massive unemployment in the current recession.

Be sure to subscribe to receive the conclusion of this series.

I’m Mad As Hell (Part 4): Declining Economy Causes Spiraling Stress

Morris Segall      declining economy, economics, future trends, public unrest, recession, stress

In a recent article published March 23 for SPGTrend.com subscribers, we examined the social and political toll of the current recession and their longer term impacts on the U.S and overseas economies.  Over the course of several blog posts, we will take you through the content of this piece and put what we’re going through into context.

In part one, we outlined an introduction for this series.  Part two discussed the first four trends and developments.  Part three discussed public anger.  Today’s entry, part four, will discuss the ramifications of an even more insidious by-product of the recession: stress.

In addition to anger, the American public is emotionally stressed and physically debilitated.

After experiencing the heady and seemingly inexorable rise in consumer net worth and incomes from the expanding economy, rising stock markets and most importantly, the outlandish increase in real estate values over the 2003-2006 periods, the American consumer has seen his world literally come crashing down since the second half of 2007. It is estimated that the declines in housing values and the stock markets together over the last 5 quarters is more than $15 trillion or an entire year’s GDP.  As a result, the American consumer that exuded great confidence and risk tolerance has become stricken with fear.

In the article, “The Fed’s Conundrum,” April 5, 2007, we commented on what we felt was an increase in the fear factor for consumers, which was going to suppress consumer spending and appetite for risk, going forward. We based this on the increase in inflation at the time and the accelerating decline in the housing cycle underway, leading to increased mortgage foreclosures. In addition, as government statistics would later prove, job creation was peaking that spring.

Fear is something the American public doesn’t exhibit very often.  The post war period has been one of economic growth and a rising standard of living for Americans. To be sure, the American economy has experienced periodic and sometimes severe recessions, but they have been surpassed by longer and stronger growth periods.

Until this decade. The current recession is the second major economic downturn since 2000 and this recession is by far the most damaging and most pervasive in financial and social terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The loss of homes, jobs, net worth, financial security and retirement security has caused the American consumer to doubt his ability to survive and to doubt the American capitalist economic model.

In the current economic environment, Americans are full of worry.  A March 4, 2009 article in Advertising Age noted that prescriptions for sleeping pills and anti-depressants had escalated 7% and 15%, respectively, in 2008 despite a cutback in marketing for such drugs by pharmaceutical companies.

Based on the worsening economic climate in the first half of 2009, we would expect such numbers to increase. In the same Advertising Age article a poll by the National Sleep Foundation released on March 2, 2009, found over 30% of respondents said they are “losing sleep over the economy and their own financial situation”. The National Sleep Foundation Poll found an increase in sleeplessness and anxiety is leading to an increase in depression and a decrease in efficiency and productivity on the job.

Regional and local data particularly in cities hard hit by the recession indicate a dramatic increase in suicides, suicide attempts and calls to suicide hot lines. This emotional stress is taking its toll on the overall physical health of the country. We believe doctor visits for emotional or stress related physical illnesses have increased as well as absenteeism from work. The result is a significant increase in medical care costs for doctor visits and prescriptions as well as a decrease in overall worker productivity. In such an environment, people are more nervous and short-tempered, which often leads to increased aggressive behavior including violence. Witness the increase in mass shootings in the U.S. and shockingly in Europe as overstressed individuals react to the loss of their jobs and declines in their financial conditions. In addition, consumer outlooks for the future are negative.

Be sure to subscribe to receive part 5 in this series.

I’m Mad As Hell (Part 1)

Morris Segall      domestic policy, economy, globalization, recession, trends

In a recent article published March 23 for SPGTrend.com subscribers, we examined the social and political toll of the current recession and their longer term impacts on the U.S and overseas economies.  Over the course of several blog posts, we will take you through the content of this piece and put what we’re going through into context.

The above mantra from the movie “Network” is but one symptom of the increasing social, emotional, physical and political cost of the worldwide recession which is now entering its second year.  For those of you that have been following our commentaries over the past three years you know that we have written extensively on the financial and economic trends and developments that have led to the current severe worldwide recession and our views of the reactions of the U.S. and foreign governments to this recession. However, the length and severity of this recession are causing in our opinion additional high, and we believe, long lasting social, physical and political costs that will represent significant changes in worldwide economic growth and social and political attitudes, particularly in the U.S., going forward.

As we have been stating for some time, this recession was initially caused by the bursting of the housing bubble here in the U.S. which then spread to the financial system and finally to the business, non-residential real estate and state and local government sectors. The U.S. recession has spread worldwide as our economy contracted and credit losses expanded to overseas banking and export dependent economies. Indeed the negative impacts of recessions overseas are more severe on foreign economies than here in the U.S.

Be sure to subscribe to our blog to read the rest of this ongoing series.

Morris R. Segall, CFA, CIC

Is There A Plan Here?

Morris Segall      collapse, economics, economy, failure, future, government, plan, recession, tax, world

Like Alice’s plunge down the rabbit hole, the government’s proposed recovery strategy gets curiouser and curiouser every day!  Rather than helping the consumer to save, pay down his debt and get back into the game, we continue pumping money into faltering and distressed Fortune 1000 companies. Most of these wounded entities have pursued risky and inept business strategies and made ill-advised acquisitions in the last two years.  If BOA is choking on the debt from buying Countrywide Credit and Merrill Lynch, why shouldn’t it be forced to sell off assets to raise capital?   Capital One, already in trouble with underperforming credit card debt, has made two commercial bank acquisitions since 2005, the peak of the housing bubble.  Infusing taxpayer money into these large corporations on the premise that they are too big to fail is just not sound fiscal policy. Perhaps they shouldn’t have been allowed to “get too big to fail” in the merger and acquisition mania of 2005-07. At what point do we hold the senior managements and boards of directors and even the shareholders of these companies accountable for the disastrous decisions that now taxpayers are asked to pay for?  Remember, these are some of the biggest multi-national corporations in the world with supposedly the best managements, at least according to their paychecks. As the song says, “breaking up is hard to do” but we unwound the conglomerates created in the 1960′s in the recessions of 1973-74 and 1980-82. Divestiture raises capital and creates competition.

Rather than keeping banks and other industries on life support with more capital infusions, we should be:

• sending rebate checks to middle class taxpayers earning below $150,000 with an inducement to encourage saving and debt reduction;
• creating a graduated sales tax to help middle and lower income consumers;
• boosting tax revenue by instituting luxury consumption taxes on big-ticket items: luxury cars, boats, second homes, etc.;
• forcing troubled companies to raise capital by selling assets they have acquired;
• repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax for taxpayers earning less than $250,000 in taxable income;
• creating a “WPA” program for unemployed accountants, managers, IT programmers, administrators and researchers to oversee and manage the bailout money and stimulus programs.

The only worthwhile prescription to save struggling banks is for the Federal government to set up a “bad debt bank” to get nonperforming loans off the balance sheets (see our website article, “The Treasury Plan”, Dec. 7, 2007).  Banks won’t lend while they’re strangling on the paper that’s backing bad loans.  A “bad debt bank” will allow the U.S. to renegotiate bad loans, forestall foreclosures and hold bad assets for long-term resale. It’s the only way we’re going to free the banks and credit intermediaries to make new loans.

Now the President wants to curtail the tax deductions for charitable giving and mortgage interest on upper income taxpayers just as we are trying to stimulate housing and asking charities to do more in this recession.  Cutting back on deductions for mortgage interest and charitable donations would be disastrous!  Rather than raising revenue, the former would stop many upper income homebuyers in their tracks. The latter would be devastating for non-profit organizations.  Upper income taxpayers are the backbone of charitable giving.  If charities are expected to carry more of the social service costs during tough times, why cut their major source of giving?  If this pattern of penalizing the rich continues, expect America’s wealthy to move their assets to offshore tax havens and more taxpayers will create trusts to escape taxation altogether thus reducing rather than increasing tax revenues.

The litany of misdirected tactics goes on and on!  Another bank or industry bailout is just a waste of your money and mine. The Federal government is already the de-facto banking industry in this country given all the money invested in the industry and the widespread guarantees of deposits. Recovery of this recession was always going to take a long period of time until the consumer got his balance sheet back into creditworthy condition thus allowing him to “get back into the game”.  These bailout and stimulus programs are costly diversions from the underlying cure and they are now, along with the President’s ambitious spending budgets, creating concern among economists and international traders about the future creditworthiness of the U.S. government. We warned about this possibility in our website article of Sept. 8, 2008, “Stocks, Recession and the Bailout”.  Apparently we are not alone.

Morris R. Segall, CFA, CIC

The Economy: Getting Through The Recession (updated)

Morris Segall      climate, depression, economic, economy, global, government, international, recession, slowdown, strategy, survival, trends

The Economy: Getting Through the Recession

Morris Segall      economy, recession

SPG Trend Advisors and its affiliate, Sage Policy Group, make presentations on local and regional economies, the national economy, international and geopolitical issues and capital market events. We offer these presentations for our readers to gain additional information from our commentaries and further explanation of our analyses and forecasts.

Below is the first in a series of presentations we plan to showcase here on the SPG Trend blog.  While this was given on November 21, 2008, the content is still highly prescient: